(originally posted on Sunday, March 6th, 2011)
Without further ado, let's look into one of the more interesting games on tomorrow's spring slate:
Texas Rangers (+110) AT San Francisco Giants (-130)
Disclaimer: don't ever put too much stock into spring statistics when it comes to projecting. That being said, I'm about to use some in this post, because they're the best measure of momentum right now.
Most official money lines favor the Giants in this one, and I don't fault them for it: the Giants have been playing solid baseball this spring, with a strong bounceback by Pablo Sandoval (who struggled mightily last season to replicate his 2009 season), a continued power surge for sophomore backstop Buster Posey (proud owner of a 2.008 OPS, which, to quote the venerable Charlie Sheen, looks like it's "not from this particular terrestrial realm"), and a solid showing from top prospect Brandon Belt.
But meanwhile, the Rangers have also quietly put together a good record this spring, thanks unsurprisingly to some absolutely jawdropping offensive numbers. Think Buster Posey's OPS this Spring has been insane? Four Rangers have an OPS above 2.000.
If anything, we know that both teams are playing with confidence and momentum, coming off of commanding victories today against Seattle and Milwaukee. The pitching matchup looks like it'll be a deciding factor: Jonathan Sanchez has more name recognition than Alexi Ogando, but Ogando was dominant in short relief roles last season. Look for him to continue that run, as he'll be pitching only a few innings as a starter. I can see the Rangers offense looking to tee off on Sanchez earlier in the game, though he's no easy task either.
On the whole, I look for the Rangers to knock off the Giants - though both teams are coming off of strong wins and are playing well this spring, I think that the Texas offense, which is getting great production from players who aren't starting, will be tough to counter as San Francisco won't leave its best pitchers in for too long.
All in all, I wouldn't advise making picks on a Spring Training game - neither team's main focus is winning the game, so elementary baseball strategy almost goes straight out the window. But if you do want to pick this one, go with the Rangers.
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