The first division I want to preview is the NL West, which has had some of the tightest playoff races in recent history - remember 2007 and game 163?
Let's go team-by-team:
1. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Who's In (rWAR): Jeff Suppan (-0.7), Miguel Tejada (1.8), Elmer "Glue" Dessens (0.9)
Who's Out (rWAR): Juan Uribe (2.0), Edgar "Clutch and Disrespected" Renteria (1.0), Jose Guillen (-0.4 with Giants)
Net WAR In: -0.6
Honestly, I didn't believe in this team all of last year - and as a fan of an NL West team not based in San Francisco, I had no desire to believe. But this starting rotation is extremely formidable - as I began to realize the threat they posed in the playoffs, I warned Phillies fans to root for the Braves in the NLDS because I felt that if any team was taking down H2O, it was San Francisco. Lincecum, Sanchez, Cain, Bumgarner - that's a strong top four, and the Giants' bullpen was very underrated outside of Brian "Fear the Beard" Wilson. The offense is still not that great, but honestly the more and more the Phillies get hit by injury, the more they start looking like the Giants - and the Giants don't have a team as good as the Braves threatening them in the division. They will, however, have to deal with regression from Aubrey Huff and the swapping of Juan Uribe for Miguel Tejada. But if Brandon Belt can get good playing time this season, this offense should see a bump - Buster Posey playing for a full season should help, too.
2. COLORADO ROCKIES
Who's In (rWAR): Jose Lopez (1.6), Matt Lidstrom (0.3), Ty Wigginton (0.4)
Who's Out (rWAR): Miguel Olivo (1.6), Joe Beimel (0.8), Clint Barmes (1.0), Jeff Francis (0.5)
Net WAR In: -1.6
It's an odd numbered year, which spells good things for Colorado despite their losses in personnel. Their big story this year is not so much who's in our out, but rather who's staying. And the two huge answers are Carlos "CarGo" Gonzalez and Troy "Tulowit to Quit" Tulowitzki, who should form a strong backbone for this team for the foreseeable future. Despite huge regression to the mean during the second half of the year, Ubaldo Jimenez still managed to put up 7.1 WAR last season. Between him, a solid Jorge De La Rosa, and the emerging Jhoulys Chacin, the Rockies will put up a surprisingly good rotation. They aren't going to be absolutely amazing, in my opinion (CarGo had a ridiculous .385 BABIP last season, which even with the type of hitter he is is unsustainable), but they will be a very solid team with a good shot to go on one of their patented late-season tears.
3. LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Who's In (rWAR): Juan Uribe (2.0), Jon "Make way for Tim Redding" Garland (1.8), Matt Guerrier (1.4)
Who's Out (rWAR): Russell "The Love Muscle" Martin (1.9), Reed Johnson (0.2)
Net WAR In: 3.1
The inhabitants of Chavez Ravine were quite a mess last year, and were actually pretty dismal except for beating up on some cellar dwellers. The team should hopefully be in a better place this year, which should happen if Jonathan Broxton stops sucking and returns to being really really good and scary. If Matt Kemp can get any closer to his 2009 season, and Andre Ethier can shore up his defense even a little bit, the team should see tangible improvement even from the players they retain. Anchored by Clayton "Boogie" Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, the team has a pretty solid starting group too. Hong Chih Kuo should remain dominant in the pen, too, setting the team up for some success. The Trolley-Dodgers played terribly last year, but they aren't too far removed from their playoff years. With a little luck, they could vault farther up in the standings, but I can see them as pretty mediocre with not too much of a chance to leapfrog the Rockies and Giants.
4. SAN DIEGO PADRES
Who's In (rWAR): Orlando "Bro-dawg" Hudson (2.0), Jason Bartlett (1.8), Brad Hawpe (0.8), Dustin Moseley (0.5), Rob Johnson (0.3), Cameron "Panda Express" Maybin (0.3), Jorge "Seriously?" Cantu (0.1), Aaron Harang (-1.2), Chad "Lolz" Qualls (-3.0 - but his xFIP was nice?)
Who's Out (rWAR): Adrian "Did I really need to go to Boston for you to learn who I was?" Gonzalez (6.3), Yorvit "I bounce around the NL West for kicks" Torrealba (2.8), Jon Garland (1.8) , Miguel "Vitamin B-12" Tejada (1.8), David "Expelliarmus" Eckstein (1.4), Chris Young (0.9), Matt Stairs (0.5)
Net WAR in: -13.9
It doesn't really bode well for a team when it loses it's best player who's been putting up monster offensive numbers in a park that depresses offenses like no other (PETCO Park's park factor from ESPN, in 2010, was 0.882 where league average is 1.000) while bringing in a veritable treasure trove of... replacement-level players. A 90 win team last year because of a lockdown bullpen, the Friars dealt away two cogs of their bullpen in the Maybin deal and attempted to build on the fly a la Rays - except the Padres bullpen was cheaper and still under control. Not a bad haul in the Gonzalez trade, but this is a team whose eyes are definitely not on next year. Look for them to be much worse next year, but not horribly so: BP has them at 79 wins, and I'll put them somewhere in the 75-79 win category.
5. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Who's In (rWAR): Juan Miranda (0.1), Zach Duke (-0.2), Brian Sweeney (0.1), David Hernandez (0.8), Kam(eron) Mickolio (-0.1), JJ "Anywhere but Queens" Putz (1.5), Henry "Veteran Presence" Blanco (0.3), Melvin "We need Mora veterans!" Mora (0.1), Xavier "Let's find every former Padre and put him on one team" Nady (-1.1), Willie "Eckstein 2.0" Bloomquist (-0.1), Armando "Jim Joyce and I are writing a book!" Galarraga (0.9), Russell Bunyan Branyan (1.0), Geoff "2-year deal" Blum (-0.2)
Who's Out (rWAR): Brandon Webb (0.0), Mark "Special K" Reynolds (0.8), Adam "League Average" LaRoche (1.2), Rodrigo Lopez (-0.7), Kris "Anna" Benson (-0.1), Ryan Church (0.3), DJ "Turn it up" Carrasco (-0.3), Augie "Augie Augie, Oi Oi Oi" Ojeda (-0.6), Blaine Boyer (-0.3)
Net WAR In: 2.8
In the interest of full disclosure - I am a Diamondbacks fan. It is a sad existence. And as much as I'd like to pick my team over the Padres to leap out of the cellar... I just can't. There are some strong improvements to the club this year thanks for Kevin Towers' ability to build a bullpen: Hernandez should be a strong set-up man, Juan Gutierrez finished last year strong and can man the eighth, and the ninth is now the realm of one-time Seattle closer JJ Putz. But to platoon Melvin Mora and Geoff Blum in place of Mark Reynolds, to state that too many strikeouts is the root of the team's struggles and to promptly sign Russell Branyan, and to block Brandon Allen at both left-field and first-base (particularly with the likes of Xavier Nady) screams an inability to understand the circumstances, or a desire to please the casual fan with recognizable names. This team is built to contend in a few years when Jarrod Parker forms a strong top three of the rotation with Daniel "God" Hudson and Ian Kennedy, not this year. Geoff Blum on a two year contract? Willie Bloomquist on a major league deal for over a million? Veteran presence is only going to get you so far, and Towers forgot one crucial aspect: the veterans you sign have to, you know, not suck. This team will improve, but it's a going to need Justin Upton to return to 2009 form and Ian Kennedy to not regress to maybe leapfrog the Padres.
One thing to clarify in this post: rWAR is Wins above Replacement, as calculated by Baseball Reference. This is a pretty good all-around measurement of a player's worth - and while it isn't the one end-all, be-all statistic in baseball, it does a much better job at telling us about a player's performance than traditional baseball statistics would.
Don't agree with me? Good - I don't think I even agree with myself. But let me know what you think.
